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Executive summary

This report covers the following key findings:

1. Nearly four in five respondents (78.4%) were aware of the US-Iran ceasefire announced on April 8, 2026, aligning closely with the Marquette Law School poll finding of 75% national approval. However, the 21.6% who remained unaware signals a meaningful information gap, likely driven by the fragmented media landscape in which social media and online news dominate but deliver uneven coverage. This gap has implications for public engagement and policy communication strategies.

2. Free-response analysis reveals that respondents lean toward wanting an unconditional ceasefire that simply stops the fighting, rather than one tied to concrete concessions such as Iran ending its nuclear program (mean score +0.21 on the conditional-unconditional dimension). This preference exists in tension with the geopolitical reality, where external reporting indicates nuclear issues, sanctions, and Strait of Hormuz access are all actively contested in negotiations. Communicators should be aware that public appetite for simplicity may outpace the complexity of the actual deal.

3. Free-response data on trust in Iran to uphold the ceasefire reveals that trust levels are significantly predicted by personality traits, particularly Ocean Openness (r=0.213), Prism Sociability (r=0.194), and Ocean Extraversion (r=0.188), while Ocean Conscientiousness is negatively correlated (r=-0.154). This suggests that trust is not purely a function of political affiliation or information exposure, but is deeply tied to individual psychological dispositions. External evidence confirms that trust is in short supply at the diplomatic level as well, with Iran's Foreign Minister declaring 'zero trust' in the US.

4. Social media is the leading news source for Middle East updates among respondents (34.3%), narrowly ahead of online news sites (33.3%), with cable TV a distant third (19.2%). This mirrors Pew Research findings that 53% of U.S. adults get news from social media at least sometimes. External media analysis raises concerns about ideological skew in algorithmically curated news feeds, with one watchdog analysis finding right-leaning Iran coverage comprising under 5% of top app editions. The dominance of social and digital media as primary information channels has direct implications for how public opinion on the ceasefire is being shaped.

5. A plurality of respondents (39.4%) view media coverage of the Iran conflict as neutral, and a combined 35% rate it as somewhat or very fair. However, a meaningful 25.5% consider coverage somewhat or very unfair, suggesting a quarter of the public harbors distrust of media narratives. Free-response data on how information affects ceasefire views (n=171) adds qualitative texture to this skepticism. External analysis of structural media biases and ideological imbalance in news curation provides context for why a segment of respondents may feel coverage is slanted.

6. External evidence indicates that 93% of Americans reported gas prices had risen since the conflict began (Marquette poll), and respondents who cited oil prices and the Strait of Hormuz in their ceasefire outcome preferences were tracking the actual terms of the deal. Free-response data on desired ceasefire outcomes (n=135) likely captures this economic dimension, as the Strait's reopening was a central condition of the ceasefire agreement. This economic framing may be a more persuasive lever for public support than abstract geopolitical arguments.

7. Ocean Neuroticism is negatively correlated with having heard about the ceasefire (r=-0.156 for 'Yes') and positively correlated with not having heard about it (r=0.156 for 'No'), suggesting that higher-anxiety individuals are somewhat less likely to have been exposed to or retained news of the ceasefire. This is a secondary but noteworthy finding, as it implies that emotionally reactive individuals — who may be most affected by conflict news — are paradoxically less informed about a major de-escalation event. Targeted outreach through trusted, low-anxiety communication channels could help close this awareness gap.

Context

Scope: Echo Intelligence fielded icon test with 6 question(s) and 181 responses when this snapshot was captured.

Signal focus: The clearest quantitative signal in this wave comes from questions such as: Did you hear that Iran and the USA agreed to a two-week ceasefire on 4/8/26?

Interpretation frame: Results below should be read as directional evidence from this sample, not a census of the whole market.

Conclusion

What to watch: whether the top finding in this wave shows up again as more responses arrive and whether the gap between groups widens or narrows.

• Strong Ceasefire Awareness, but a Notable Information Gap Persists: If this pattern proves stable, it should inform the next decision on where to lean in.

• Respondents Lean Toward Unconditional Ceasefire Over Conditional Peace: If this pattern proves stable, it should inform the next decision on where to lean in.

Practical takeaway: treat these results as a sharp snapshot—use them to decide what to validate next, not as a final verdict.